Vet Ernst Won’t Seek Reelection, Opening Rare Iowa Senate Vacancy

U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, a combat veteran of the Iraq War and the first woman from Iowa elected to Congress, is expected to announce next month that she will not seek reelection, according to four individuals familiar with her intentions.

Ernst’s choice would lead to an unusual open Senate seat in Iowa, potentially triggering a flurry of political strategies among Republicans and providing Democrats with an opportunity in a state where they have faced challenges in recent times. Insiders shared information under the veil of confidentiality ahead of the upcoming announcement.

A former lieutenant colonel in the Iowa Army National Guard, Ernst gained prominence in 2014 when she was elected, thanks to a campaign ad that showcased her agricultural roots and military background. She subsequently ascended to the No. 3 role in Senate Republican leadership and was previously considered as a potential vice-presidential candidate for Donald Trump.

Her retirement comes on the heels of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds' announcement that she would not seek re-election, creating an opportunity for two of the state's most prominent Republican positions to become available.

Ernst, 54, has occasionally found herself at odds with her own party, facing criticism from conservatives for her votes in favor of same-sex marriage and for challenging Trump’s defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth regarding his previous comments about women in combat and accusations of sexual assault. Ernst, having experienced sexual assault herself, expressed a desire for accountability on the matter — a position that led to pressure from allies of Trump.

Despite everything, Ernst continued to enjoy robust backing in her state. She secured reelection in 2020, garnering almost 52% of the vote, and was positioned to campaign with a notable advantage in Republican registrations. By June, she had successfully gathered nearly $1.8 million and planned her yearly fundraising event.

Her exit is expected to trigger a rush among Republicans. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a third-term congresswoman from Cedar Rapids, is anticipated to announce her candidacy in a highly contested eastern Iowa district. Party strategists highlight Hinson’s strong fundraising skills and her success in attracting crossover voters, positioning her as a compelling candidate.

If Hinson enters the Senate race, her House seat may once again become one of the most fiercely contested in the nation, potentially having significant impacts further down the ballot.

Democrats are eyeing a chance to regain a presence in Iowa, a state where their impact has diminished in recent electoral contests. The previous occurrence of an open Senate contest in the state was in 2014, a race that was ultimately claimed by Ernst herself. Sen. Chuck Grassley, the senior senator from Iowa, has been in office since 1981.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee chose not to provide any remarks regarding Ernst’s intentions.